Thursday, May 16, 2013

Back to Blogger: Momo Stock Players May Be Reprising Recent Prior Ill-Fated Highs of Other Asset Classes

There's been a hiatus in posting due to a combo of travel and problems with accessing Blogger, as well as my interest in becoming more active on Seeking Alpha.  Plus, I haven't been at all sure what to say.  The financial sphere has become a bit confusing.

More and more it is looking to me as though the rise in share prices is unsupported by accelerating economic activity, which would be a great reason.  After all, stocks are very sensitive, at least much of the time, to changes in the economy, and their trend deserves respect. OTOH, it just may be that the dash from cash has led to a self-fulfilling prophecy that stocks are the best asset class-- but that once again they are destined to disappoint, at least to allow those with cash to enter the stock market at much better prices.

Simultaneously, almost all measures of price inflation I can see show declining trends.  This suggests that cash and bonds are now better buys than they recently were.

Thus it may be that, individual equity choices notwithstanding, stocks may be in a similar position to gold/silver in 2011 and AAPL in 2012:  momentum plays the fundamentals of which are eroding even as prices spike to records.

1 comment:

  1. There's been a hiatus in posting due to a combo of travel and problems with accessing Blogger, as well as my interest in becoming more active on Seeking Alpha. Plus, I haven't been at all sure what to say. The financial sphere has become a bit confusing....how to invest in the stock market

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