Thursday, March 5, 2009

Mid-day Update

From's video highlights right now:

Trichet Says ECB Weighing `New Non-Standard Measures'

BlackRock's Doll Says U.S. Stocks to Rise, Likes Energy

Somers Says Bankruptcy May Be `Positive Option' for GM

Tinsley Says BOE Hedging Bets on Scale of Asset Purchase\

And under "Portfolio Matters",

Federated's Duessel Sees S&P 500 Bottoming at 600-660. (It is now about 691.)

Where's the panic? All I see is concern.

Note: Bob Doll has come on CNBC forever with the same song. He's always nibbling on some tasty morsel of the stock market. In a rational world he would be off the air and out of a job. With plenty of stuff to snack on.

The S&P 500 was around 16 about 60 years ago. If it returned 7% yearly for 60 years, it would have grown to 94 today if it also averaged a 4% dividend yield. As is, counting dividends, it has returned about 10% per year for the last 60 years. This cannot be sustainable if inflation was 4% yearly. Thus there is no inherent reason to expect the stock market to rise from here in real terms.

The stock market is probably only back to average valuations; real estate remains overvalued on an historical standard; and the U.S. has effectively become a country where a mainstream newsweekly can one week proclaim that we are all Socialists, and another week have a cover that is largely in Arabic and that promotes radical Islam.

Where is there shelter from this storm?

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