Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Domestic Ramifications of the Greek Tragedy

Gold but not silver up. Treasuries and the dollar up. But there will be no speculative attacks against gold, though there may be a squeeze on unallocated gold a la Hunt Bros circa 3 decades ago. Treasuries, though, are vulnerable, as the U. S. has moved to limit interest expense by going very, very short term on its debt issuance. It would only be fitting for the crisis that was made in America to end here.

Gold has moved above the technical barrier of $1160/ounce. It far outperformed the gold miners (GDX). This is more evidence of a move to safety.

This period now resembles the rolling crises of 1997-8. Ultimately the U. S. benefited from importing the Asian deflation (or so it seemed in 1999), but the average stock peaked then even though the averages had much farther to go.

This same dynamic may already have occurred. DuPont had a strong earnings report but succumbed to Greece et al. Steady Eddies such as WMT and MCD did fine.

The next days and weeks should be quite interesting and dangerous. Leveraged late-to-the-party stock bulls might be at risk.

Copyright (C) Long Lake LLC 2010

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