Monday, April 15, 2013

Much More Than Gold Going Down

Perhaps the amazing drop in gold relates to a forced seller or sellers.  And, perhaps the Cyprus bank closures are necessitating that.  Or course, that's a speculation.  In any case, platinum is plunging, and copper and oil are following the pattern of lower rally highs ever since their 2011 peaks.

The ECB has been a deflationary force.  It has not opened the monetary floodgates, instead forcing internal deflation on the improvident borrowing, debtor countries.  Those chickens may be coming home to roost now.  If so, look out below for US stocks.  A 20% haircut would be a gift if another deflationary recession comes now to America.  50% down is possible based on fair value around 100 on the SPY.  One of these days, history suggests that stocks will actually be undervalued again.  I went virtually out of stocks last week, mostly on Friday as I took gold's plunge as suggesting price deflation and/or illiquidity problems (they are similar problems).  So stocks, which have been discounting both lower interest rates and hedging inflation may have to be stuck with lower interest rates for a good reason-- i.e. 2008 all over again.  Though, this time the acute problem is palpably the eurozone.  Just as the US problems harmed the global economy in 2008, the eurozone and Europe as an entity could be doing something similar now.

Timing of events, and certainty, is impossible.  But as we are seeing with gold, things happen on a Friday and then a Monday, and poof.  This is what happened in the crash of 1987, BTW.

1 comment:

  1. Buying treasuries just keeps looking better and better.