Just wanted to put in a quick stock comment. Since I think that "safe" govvies are "played", I have gone to stocks with fortress balance sheets and unique large niches in core areas of the global economy. Thus I bought back into Deere (DE), which I have traded at higher prices this year, perhaps making a buck or two but jumping out as I sensed the downtrend in the shares. DE is heading for its 175th birthday. It has seen a lot worse than the mess going on in Europe! The P/E is about 9X projected 201s earnings, and its CEO was on CNBC a day or two ago reaffirming guidance and saying that construction is doing well in the US of A. Value Line's "fair value" or "value line" for DE puts fair value at about $110, not the $75 it's now at.
Also, I scaled further back into AAPL, having largely gotten out around $620+ after the DOJ lawsuit broke and trading had gotten just too crazy in the stock. Meanwhile, Microsoft came out with some event this evening that announced something more than vaporware but less than an actual product-- and was thus in stark contrast to Apple's recent WWDC where actual products ready to be shipped were announced.
Here is a pretty funny take on the event:
http://news.cnet.com/8301-17938_105-57455730-1/who-is-the-microsoft-surface-for-exactly/?part=rss&subj=crave&tag=title&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+cnet%2FpRza+%28Crave%29
I also received an impressive e-mail from a techie who may be switching from PC's to the new Empire after being blown away by seeing the Retina display on Apple's new MacBook Pro 15 inch portable computer that was unveiled at the WWDC. He is looking at much higher AAPL prices, soon. Unlike yours truly, he actually knows the hardware-software industry as a veteran insider. I'll publish his comments in full if he allows me to.
With interest rates so low, patient money that does not have to mark to market and thus can ride out what might be a very stormy time in the weeks and months ahead will, I think, outperform most bonds with a truly select group of dominant equities that generate strong free cash flow.
Thus I have added select GARP companies to bond-like utility stocks as I have moved away from the highly-appreciated bonds that now have more risk than reward as I see it.
Showing posts with label GARP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label GARP. Show all posts
Tuesday, June 19, 2012
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Apple of the Public's Eye
I have more than once praised AAPL and gold as investments, such as on a Sept. 1 post. An article appeared today that indicates that Apple is playing in a different league than any of its corporate competitors, tech or otherwise. Per Secrets of Apple's customer success:
For the seventh straight year, Apple has topped its competitors in the PC industry in the University of Michigan's American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI), achieving a score of 86 out of 100. Its Apple's highest ranking since the annual survey began in 1995. . .
The Mac maker's nine-point lead is now the largest lead any company has over its competition in any of the 45 categories that the ACSI study surveys--including home appliances, gas stations, autos, e-commerce, airlines, and more.
AAPL is one of the few high quality large cap companies selling at a clear price-earnings ratio discount to its recent and prospective growth rate. Its growth comes with no debt, no leverage. And need anyone mention that its leadership role is in an intrinsically high-growth area, that of mobile information/communications? And that increasingly its growth is ex-U. S., and therefore it is itself an anti-dollar hedge?
If you think I like the stock, with appreciation for the substantial risks it and the overall stock market have, you are correct. Apple is sui generis. For a long time, that was a bad thing. Now it's the paragon- at a "GARP" discount to the market.
Caveat non-emptor?
Copyright (C) Long Lake LLC 2010
For the seventh straight year, Apple has topped its competitors in the PC industry in the University of Michigan's American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI), achieving a score of 86 out of 100. Its Apple's highest ranking since the annual survey began in 1995. . .
The Mac maker's nine-point lead is now the largest lead any company has over its competition in any of the 45 categories that the ACSI study surveys--including home appliances, gas stations, autos, e-commerce, airlines, and more.
AAPL is one of the few high quality large cap companies selling at a clear price-earnings ratio discount to its recent and prospective growth rate. Its growth comes with no debt, no leverage. And need anyone mention that its leadership role is in an intrinsically high-growth area, that of mobile information/communications? And that increasingly its growth is ex-U. S., and therefore it is itself an anti-dollar hedge?
If you think I like the stock, with appreciation for the substantial risks it and the overall stock market have, you are correct. Apple is sui generis. For a long time, that was a bad thing. Now it's the paragon- at a "GARP" discount to the market.
Caveat non-emptor?
Copyright (C) Long Lake LLC 2010
Thursday, July 1, 2010
iPhone Update: Look Carefully at the Model
iPhone 3G signal and reception complaints pour in
The complaints about the iPhone 4 may be unimportant to the ultimate value of Apple's stock. It looks as though we went through this 2 years ago. Time will tell.
Meanwhile by all measures of "GARP" investing, AAPL is quite cheap unless iPhone sales crater or some other unanticipated problems surface.
Copyright (C) Long Lake LLC 2010
The complaints about the iPhone 4 may be unimportant to the ultimate value of Apple's stock. It looks as though we went through this 2 years ago. Time will tell.
Meanwhile by all measures of "GARP" investing, AAPL is quite cheap unless iPhone sales crater or some other unanticipated problems surface.
Copyright (C) Long Lake LLC 2010
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