Health Care Reform Now?

I woke up this morning thinking that the odds have to favor the President here. No matter that he and his party just have not made the case to the American people. Raw party politics can trump that. Then I saw his worst numbers yet coming from Rasmussen Reports, which while a nominally Republican-oriented firm, has a very good track record of accuracy no matter which way the political winds blow.

From polling posted today, Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll, here are highlights:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows that 22% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty-three percent (43%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -21. That matches the lowest Approval Index rating yet recorded for this President.

Forty-two percent (42%) of Democrats Strongly Approve while 72% of Republicans Strongly Disapprove. Among those not affiliated with either major political party, 17% Strongly Approve and 45% Strongly Disapprove. . .

Overall, 43% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President's performance. That, too matches the lowest level yet recorded for this President. Fifty-six percent (56%) disapprove.

Rasmussen has noted that the President's popularity has bottomed several times after he has made a big push on health care, including last summer and then after his health care speech to Congress.

Is this worsening polling data enough to prevent party discipline and all the goodies that come with going with leadership enough to prevent the House from approving the Senate bill?

Much would appear to ride on the outcome both for America and for the economy.

Copyright (C) Long Lake LLC 2010

Presidental Popularity on the Economy Down as the Stock Market Parties as if a Boom was Booming

It used to be the case that the public's view of how the President was doing on the economy was a referendum on the economy.

With the economic activism of the Obama administration, perhaps to some degree the public is actually commenting on the policies of the government to a greater degree than usual, but I take the above data from a Pew Research poll to largely relate to the traditional view: this is a coincident indicator of the economy wrapped in the guise of a Presidential poll.

No green shoots are seen by the public as we enter the second half year of the 8 this President was elected to serve.

How long the stock market can rise as the public increasingly is upset with the President's handling of the economy is unclear. Certainly the more than tripling of the stock market in FDR's first term correlated quickly with improvement in the Depression.

For me, the above numbers are one more reason not to trust the stock rally; and to the extent that the public is concerned about the deficit despite massive underemployment, another prop to the bond market is strengthened.

Copyright (C) Long Lake LLC 2009