Pre-P. S.: Note please that as stated last year, I have been blogging at The Daily Capitalist. As that is a WordPress site and this site uses Blogger, there are interoperability problems with dual posting. I will continue posting here on various topics and in the future will place links here to those posts.
Now to today's effort. Barack Obama looks to me like a warlike Jimmy Carter, floundering at home and aborad.
Gone are the days when his critics called him 'Bambi'. Now he sends his Defense Secretary to posture, his strategy in Afghanistan having failed so far. Here is Robert Gates' latest:
KABUL, Afghanistan – In a last farewell to US and international forces in Afghanistan, Defense Secretary Robert Gates says they are on track to deliver a decisive blow against the Taliban.
Sorry, it was over a year ago that we heard that the victory in the non-city of Marjah was a prelude to a major, successful takeover of Kandahar city. What Gates and his boss should have done is what corporations learned to do years ago: underpromise and overdeliver. First rout them, then everyone will see the victory and you can be modest. Assuming the reporting is correct, Gates was engaging in puffery. Unattractive.
Not that I favor this effort at all. My sense is that 'Bambi' is in league with the neocons. I prefer the Reagan years. The only foreign military aggression I remember US troops performing was the minor thing in Grenada. Peace through strength. The last decade of all war, all the time with the latest, Libya, being an obvious war of choice.
Anyway . . . as with the ongoing military effort in Afghanistan, so with the economy. It's not yet falling off a cliff, and let's hope it does not, but as with Afghanistan, the administration has overpromised and underdelivered. And as the economic course was set in 2009 and 2010 with no Republican support, it was the Dems who were the lone wolf party and their president whose electoral fate is likely going to be decided next year based on the choices they unilaterally made one and two years ago.
It's time to let freedom (economic) ring. That's the solution. As we saw in 2009, the administration had no creative ideas for the economy, and so they ran up a multi-trillion dollar debt for little if any lasting benefit. At least FDR had the CCC and built some structures that are still in use today.
When the latest round of "Keynesianism" fails, which people will start to notice by this fall at the latest, there will be that many more adherents to the historical American position that that government is best that governs least.
BTW I put 'Keynesianism' in quotes because we are in a post gold-standard world with deficits so profound that it is impossible to know what John Maynard himself would be advocating were he around today. We have moved to an economic Extremistan that is sui generis in American history.
Copyright (C) Long Lake LLC 2011
Showing posts with label Taliban. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Taliban. Show all posts
Thursday, June 9, 2011
Monday, June 7, 2010
Afghan News Courtesy of Pakistani Newspaper
From The Nation, likely the leading English-language Pakistani on-line news journal, a piece running now, titled US drone or spy plane shot down in Marjah:
Mujahideen shot down a US invaders' unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) or pilotless spy plane which fell onto the ground in Marjah , the wreckage of which is still lying scattered across the area. In another news form Helmand, Mujahideen, in two separate encounters with the combined invaders and their minions in Marjah, killed five NATO invaders with two of their local puppets and wounded 7 more NATO invaders in the late afternoon hours of the Sunday. (Taliban website)
More news:
9 NATO invaders killed in Kandahar
Qari Yousuf Ahmadi
A planted mine tore through a group of NATO troops Monday noon , killing or wounding more than 9 cowardly invaders, who were on attack mission against Mujahiddin in Arghandab district of Helmand. (Taliban website)
Mujahideen kill three NATO invaders in Badgish
Mujahideen killed three NATO soldiers with wounding another in an encounter in Atash Sang district of Badghis on Sunday. (Taliban website)
3 US invaders killed, 5 injured in Wardag
About 3 American invaders got killed with 5 more seriously hurt on Sunday as two of their tanks were hit by Mujahideen through RPGs in Sayedabad district of Wardag. (Taliban website)
Four US troops killed in Baghlan
Zabihullah Mujahid
At least four American invading troops were killed on Sunday as their military tank got hit by destroyed in Mujahideen's mortar rounds in Central Baghlan district, Baghlan province. (Taliban website)
Mujahideen kill four American terrorists in Ningarhar
Zabihullah Mujahid
During countrywide operation al-Fath, Mujahideen killed four American cowardly invaders with their tank destroyed in a face-to-face fighting in Khgianu district of Ningarhar on Sunday. (Taliban website)
Two tanks of NATO invaders eliminated in Helmand
Qari Yousuf Ahmadi
Two of tanks of the NATO cowardly forces got hit and destroyed in Mujahideen planted mine blast yesterday afternoon (June 06) killing almost all the invaders in the tanks. (Taliban website)
How much overlap between the different reports there is, and how much truth there is, of course I can't begin to comment. It is clear, however, that there is a certain-- how may we say it-- unpopularity of the U. S. and NATO presence in Afghanistan in the editors of this English-language journal.
Here is a recent AP review of some of the above events.
All this so that the Karzai gang can control the narcotics trade?
Copyright (C) Long Lake LLC 2010
Mujahideen shot down a US invaders' unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) or pilotless spy plane which fell onto the ground in Marjah , the wreckage of which is still lying scattered across the area. In another news form Helmand, Mujahideen, in two separate encounters with the combined invaders and their minions in Marjah, killed five NATO invaders with two of their local puppets and wounded 7 more NATO invaders in the late afternoon hours of the Sunday. (Taliban website)
More news:
9 NATO invaders killed in Kandahar
Qari Yousuf Ahmadi
A planted mine tore through a group of NATO troops Monday noon , killing or wounding more than 9 cowardly invaders, who were on attack mission against Mujahiddin in Arghandab district of Helmand. (Taliban website)
Mujahideen kill three NATO invaders in Badgish
Mujahideen killed three NATO soldiers with wounding another in an encounter in Atash Sang district of Badghis on Sunday. (Taliban website)
3 US invaders killed, 5 injured in Wardag
About 3 American invaders got killed with 5 more seriously hurt on Sunday as two of their tanks were hit by Mujahideen through RPGs in Sayedabad district of Wardag. (Taliban website)
Four US troops killed in Baghlan
Zabihullah Mujahid
At least four American invading troops were killed on Sunday as their military tank got hit by destroyed in Mujahideen's mortar rounds in Central Baghlan district, Baghlan province. (Taliban website)
Mujahideen kill four American terrorists in Ningarhar
Zabihullah Mujahid
During countrywide operation al-Fath, Mujahideen killed four American cowardly invaders with their tank destroyed in a face-to-face fighting in Khgianu district of Ningarhar on Sunday. (Taliban website)
Two tanks of NATO invaders eliminated in Helmand
Qari Yousuf Ahmadi
Two of tanks of the NATO cowardly forces got hit and destroyed in Mujahideen planted mine blast yesterday afternoon (June 06) killing almost all the invaders in the tanks. (Taliban website)
How much overlap between the different reports there is, and how much truth there is, of course I can't begin to comment. It is clear, however, that there is a certain-- how may we say it-- unpopularity of the U. S. and NATO presence in Afghanistan in the editors of this English-language journal.
Here is a recent AP review of some of the above events.
All this so that the Karzai gang can control the narcotics trade?
Copyright (C) Long Lake LLC 2010
Sunday, May 9, 2010
Something Wrong Here
Having been a bit behind on the news due to limited to no Internet or TV access, I just learned of the following Michael Bloomberg quote (from "The Taliban in My Inbox" by Bill Roggio):
“If I had to guess 25 cents, this would be exactly that, somebody who’s homegrown, maybe a mentally deranged person or someone with a political agenda that doesn’t like the health care bill or something, it could be anything,” Bloomberg told CBS News.
How on earth could the mayor of New York City not think that jihadists were the likely suspects? Instead he implicitly blamed Tea Partiers and Republicans.
This is the financial man who was installed as mayor during the period of great financial crimes and who, for unknown reasons, was allowed to have an unprecedented third mayoral term. And he's so with it that despite all the actual and aborted plots by jihadists on New York since 1993, he muses that a disgruntled anti-Obamacare nut might have been the perpetrator.
On which group is the U. S. raining missiles upon from drone aircraft? Who is NATO fighting in Afghanistan? Well, duh, maybe they are striking back.
This striking back is apparently common in terrorism circles. The story is that the attack in Oklahoma City by Timothy McVeigh's group occurred one year after the Branch Davidian disaster near Waco. Where are the violent deaths from Obamacare that would motivate an anti-Obamacare person or group to attempt mass murder?
As in a mystery story, sometimes small details such as this Bloomberg statement are telling.
After all the lies of commission and omission the past few years regarding the financial scandal and then the Big Lie about the "city" of Marja in Afghanistan (just why was that primitive group of rural villages invaded other than to show that the "surge" was "working"?), is it really possible that the mayor of New York City really thought first about opposition to Obamacare rather than those the U. S. continues to kill overseas and who have been busily trying to attack us, sometimes successfully, for years?
In the words of Robert Zimmerman aka Bob Dylan:
There's something going on and you don't know what it is, do you, Mr. Jones?
Whatever it is, it's bad sh-t.
Copyright (C) Long Lake LLC 2010
“If I had to guess 25 cents, this would be exactly that, somebody who’s homegrown, maybe a mentally deranged person or someone with a political agenda that doesn’t like the health care bill or something, it could be anything,” Bloomberg told CBS News.
How on earth could the mayor of New York City not think that jihadists were the likely suspects? Instead he implicitly blamed Tea Partiers and Republicans.
This is the financial man who was installed as mayor during the period of great financial crimes and who, for unknown reasons, was allowed to have an unprecedented third mayoral term. And he's so with it that despite all the actual and aborted plots by jihadists on New York since 1993, he muses that a disgruntled anti-Obamacare nut might have been the perpetrator.
On which group is the U. S. raining missiles upon from drone aircraft? Who is NATO fighting in Afghanistan? Well, duh, maybe they are striking back.
This striking back is apparently common in terrorism circles. The story is that the attack in Oklahoma City by Timothy McVeigh's group occurred one year after the Branch Davidian disaster near Waco. Where are the violent deaths from Obamacare that would motivate an anti-Obamacare person or group to attempt mass murder?
As in a mystery story, sometimes small details such as this Bloomberg statement are telling.
After all the lies of commission and omission the past few years regarding the financial scandal and then the Big Lie about the "city" of Marja in Afghanistan (just why was that primitive group of rural villages invaded other than to show that the "surge" was "working"?), is it really possible that the mayor of New York City really thought first about opposition to Obamacare rather than those the U. S. continues to kill overseas and who have been busily trying to attack us, sometimes successfully, for years?
In the words of Robert Zimmerman aka Bob Dylan:
There's something going on and you don't know what it is, do you, Mr. Jones?
Whatever it is, it's bad sh-t.
Copyright (C) Long Lake LLC 2010
Monday, October 19, 2009
Civil War in Pakistan Continues
There are two divergent reports on the Government move on the Pakistani Taliban with the invasion of South Waziristan. On Bloomberg.com, we have Pakistan Kills 60 Taliban in Push Against Waziristan Home Base, wherein the title makes matters look good for the government. It is clear that the U. S. is financing this effort and that Pakistan would rather leave well enough along. The article also says:
The Taliban will “split into small groups and harass the strangers in a terrain which the Mehsuds know well,” said Bahukutumbi Raman at the Chennai, India-based Institute for Topical Studies. Pakistan is likely to face a new round of terrorist attacks in cities far from the fighting, he said.
The Pakistan-based Dawn.com reports on this action as well and suggests that the Taliban may melt away in Troops make steady gains in South Waziristan:
Security forces claimed on Sunday to have made steady gains in their assaults on militants’ strongholds in South Waziristan and army officials said they were surprised by low level of resistance.
'The area has been heavily mined. There are a lot of improvised explosive devices and mines. But the level of resistance from the militants is not very high,' one of them said.
As in Afghanistan, Iraq and Viet Nam, the U. S. or its proxy is fighting a body count war against an ideological foe. One just has to wonder what the cost in money, revenge, and other factors is going to be.
The advice from this former Viet Nam War protester but non-pacifist is to be skeptical of reports of success in Pak-ghanistan. We can hope for the best but "spin" will be everywhere.
Copyright (C) Long Lake LLC
The Taliban will “split into small groups and harass the strangers in a terrain which the Mehsuds know well,” said Bahukutumbi Raman at the Chennai, India-based Institute for Topical Studies. Pakistan is likely to face a new round of terrorist attacks in cities far from the fighting, he said.
The Pakistan-based Dawn.com reports on this action as well and suggests that the Taliban may melt away in Troops make steady gains in South Waziristan:
Security forces claimed on Sunday to have made steady gains in their assaults on militants’ strongholds in South Waziristan and army officials said they were surprised by low level of resistance.
'The area has been heavily mined. There are a lot of improvised explosive devices and mines. But the level of resistance from the militants is not very high,' one of them said.
As in Afghanistan, Iraq and Viet Nam, the U. S. or its proxy is fighting a body count war against an ideological foe. One just has to wonder what the cost in money, revenge, and other factors is going to be.
The advice from this former Viet Nam War protester but non-pacifist is to be skeptical of reports of success in Pak-ghanistan. We can hope for the best but "spin" will be everywhere.
Copyright (C) Long Lake LLC
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
Marines to Protect Afghans From One Another
As the eighth anniversary of the U. S. military action in Afghanistan approaches, echoes of a failed land (and air, and swift boat) war in Asia are surfacing. In U.S. Marines Try to Retake Afghan Valley From Taliban, the New York Times reports that:
Almost 4,000 United States Marines, backed by helicopter gunships, pushed into the volatile Helmand River valley in southwestern Afghanistan early Thursday morning to try to take back the region from Taliban fighters whose control of poppy harvests and opium smuggling in Helmand provides major financing for the Afghan insurgency. . .
“We do not want people of Helmand Province to see us as an enemy; we want to protect them from the enemy,” Captain Pelletier said, The A.P. reported.
The goal of the operation is to put pressure on the Taliban militants “and to show our commitment to the Afghan people that when we come in we are going to stay long enough to set up their own institutions,” he said.
Even more than in Viet Nam after the Tet offensive destroyed the Viet Cong as a fighting force and left North Viet Nam to carry on the war effort, what is going on in Afghanistan is a civil conflict.
The last thing the insular Afghans want is Christians protecting them from their brethren. And our main interest in opiates originating overseas should be to dry up domestic demand through a variety of peaceful domestic initiatives.
The U. S. has never had significant consumer price inflation in the absence of a major war. If this one heats up, Treasuries should be sold and gold bought. For now, the wind-down in Iraq and the limited nature of U. S. involvement in the Af-Pak region is not sufficient to overcome the huge slack in the domestic economy. I watch Pak-ghanistan regularly, including a good local Pakistani free online daily, www.dawn.com.
Copyright (C) Long Lake LLC 2009
Almost 4,000 United States Marines, backed by helicopter gunships, pushed into the volatile Helmand River valley in southwestern Afghanistan early Thursday morning to try to take back the region from Taliban fighters whose control of poppy harvests and opium smuggling in Helmand provides major financing for the Afghan insurgency. . .
“We do not want people of Helmand Province to see us as an enemy; we want to protect them from the enemy,” Captain Pelletier said, The A.P. reported.
The goal of the operation is to put pressure on the Taliban militants “and to show our commitment to the Afghan people that when we come in we are going to stay long enough to set up their own institutions,” he said.
Even more than in Viet Nam after the Tet offensive destroyed the Viet Cong as a fighting force and left North Viet Nam to carry on the war effort, what is going on in Afghanistan is a civil conflict.
The last thing the insular Afghans want is Christians protecting them from their brethren. And our main interest in opiates originating overseas should be to dry up domestic demand through a variety of peaceful domestic initiatives.
The U. S. has never had significant consumer price inflation in the absence of a major war. If this one heats up, Treasuries should be sold and gold bought. For now, the wind-down in Iraq and the limited nature of U. S. involvement in the Af-Pak region is not sufficient to overcome the huge slack in the domestic economy. I watch Pak-ghanistan regularly, including a good local Pakistani free online daily, www.dawn.com.
Copyright (C) Long Lake LLC 2009
Monday, June 8, 2009
Favorable Portents Overseas; Green Shoots?
There are some political green shoots happening overseas. For example, in Lebanon, the political winds seemed to be strongly going Hezbollah's way. Thus it was surprising to view the following headline today on Bloomberg.com: Lebanon Elects Pro-West Alliance as Hezbollah Challenge Fails.
Here are the essentials, with the final paragraph below perhaps the most important:
Lebanon’s pro-Western coalition defeated the Iran-backed Hezbollah bloc to win re-election in a vote that may help President Barack Obama reinvigorate peace efforts in the Middle East.
The governing alliance headed by Saad Hariri gained 71 seats in yesterday’s election to the 128-member parliament, according to official results announced by Interior Minister Ziad Baroud at a press conference in Beirut today. The Hezbollah-led grouping won 57 seats, he said.
Victory for Hariri’s coalition comes days after Obama’s June 4 visit to Cairo and his call for a “new beginning” between the U.S. and the Muslim world. Hezbollah has opposed American policy in the region, mocked Arab allies of the U.S. for failing to help the Palestinians, and resisted international efforts to disband its militia, which fought a monthlong war with Israel in 2006.
“This was the first real victory by pro-American groups in the ideological battle that has defined this region in the last 10 years,” said Rami Khouri of the American University of Beirut. Previously, “every time the U.S. tried to help somebody in the region, it hurt them and they lost.”
Another green shoot in Pakistan, where informed opinion I have seen was that most of the country regards the Taliban as over-zealous country bumpkins, reports that their sort of savagery is creating its own backlash, from Dawn.com: Villagers angered by mosque blast attack Taliban.
Here is most of the story:
UPPER DIR: Two Taliban commanders and their four fighters were killed in an armed action taken by a tribal Lashkar in the Doog Darra area of Upper Dir district on Sunday. (Ed.: I believe a tribal Lashkar is a militia.)
(According to AP news agency 11 militants were killed in the attack.)
The Lashkar was formed in Hayagay Sharqi, and was supported by people of Hayagay Gharbi, Doon, Kilot and Miana Doog villages, after the suicide attack on a local mosque during Friday prayers that killed over 30 people, including several children.
The Lashkar stormed Taliban bunkers in Doog Darra, Salam Bekay, Ghazigay, Shatkas, Panaghar and Maluk Khwar and torched about 20 houses of people who harboured militants.
People from several other villages joined the Lashkar to expel Taliban from their area.
According to local people, both sides were using heavy weapons in fierce clashes between the Lashkar and the Taliban.
Sources said the village force was attacking Taliban positions in Shatkas, Miana and Doog Bala.
Meanwhile, people of Maluk Khwar and Panaghar villages, who were active supporters
of the militants, also parted ways with them after the mosque blast and announced support for the tribal Lashkar and vowed to evict militants from the area.
Doog Darra area, it may be mentioned, was attacked by planes in the third week of May.
Two men of the Lashkar identified as Shah Khalid and Mohammad Ayaz were injured in Sunday’s clash.
The militants, holed up in their stronghold of Shatkas and Gazigay, were putting up stiff resistance, the sources said.
Agencies add: The incident underscored a swing in the national mood towards a more anti-Taliban stance . . .
Other articles I have read in Dawn.com indicate that the locals' anger toward the U. S. and the national government over drone airstrikes has often been overcome by a greater anger at the disgusting, totalitarian tactics of the Taliban.
Finally, while this is not really "new" news, the belated acknowledgement of the success of the surge strategy in Iraq has finally occurred in Obama Central of the mainstream media --- Newsweek. Fareed Zakaria writes in the current issue in Victory in Iraq:
When the surge was announced in January 2007, I was somewhat cautious about it. I believed that more troops and a proper counterinsurgency strategy would certainly improve the security situation—I had advocated more troops from the start of the occupation—but I believed that the fundamental problem in Iraq was political discord among the country's three main sects and ethnic groups. The surge, in my view, would alleviate those tensions but also postpone the need for a solution. Only a political agreement among these groups could reach one.
I was wrong in some ways. First, the surge turned out to be a more sophisticated strategy—encompassing political outreach to the Sunnis—than I had imagined.
It's hard to believe Newsweek is crediting George W. Bush not just with a military success but with a "sophisticated strategy".
Much that happens in the world is cyclical. The international news has been generally unpleasant since September 11, 2001. In retrospect, the economy has stank or at best mouldered since early 2001. When America said goodbye to the Truman Presidency in 1953 with his miserable 23% approval rating and then suffered through a recession from 1953-54, how many foresaw a decade of peace, prosperity, and booming stock market? And how many people on the morning of November 22, 1963 foresaw the troubles of the next two decades?
So let us hope that despite the numerous policy mistakes of the past year and past decade that have allowed Big Finance to lead us to the current economic disaster, cyclical and other forces will erode its primacy and allow natural forces to do what America likes to think it does best-- make money. And let brutes such as the Taliban and Hezbollah fall of their own weight without American bombs trying to do it from the air.
Copyright (C) Long Lake LLC 2009
Here are the essentials, with the final paragraph below perhaps the most important:
Lebanon’s pro-Western coalition defeated the Iran-backed Hezbollah bloc to win re-election in a vote that may help President Barack Obama reinvigorate peace efforts in the Middle East.
The governing alliance headed by Saad Hariri gained 71 seats in yesterday’s election to the 128-member parliament, according to official results announced by Interior Minister Ziad Baroud at a press conference in Beirut today. The Hezbollah-led grouping won 57 seats, he said.
Victory for Hariri’s coalition comes days after Obama’s June 4 visit to Cairo and his call for a “new beginning” between the U.S. and the Muslim world. Hezbollah has opposed American policy in the region, mocked Arab allies of the U.S. for failing to help the Palestinians, and resisted international efforts to disband its militia, which fought a monthlong war with Israel in 2006.
“This was the first real victory by pro-American groups in the ideological battle that has defined this region in the last 10 years,” said Rami Khouri of the American University of Beirut. Previously, “every time the U.S. tried to help somebody in the region, it hurt them and they lost.”
Another green shoot in Pakistan, where informed opinion I have seen was that most of the country regards the Taliban as over-zealous country bumpkins, reports that their sort of savagery is creating its own backlash, from Dawn.com: Villagers angered by mosque blast attack Taliban.
Here is most of the story:
UPPER DIR: Two Taliban commanders and their four fighters were killed in an armed action taken by a tribal Lashkar in the Doog Darra area of Upper Dir district on Sunday. (Ed.: I believe a tribal Lashkar is a militia.)
(According to AP news agency 11 militants were killed in the attack.)
The Lashkar was formed in Hayagay Sharqi, and was supported by people of Hayagay Gharbi, Doon, Kilot and Miana Doog villages, after the suicide attack on a local mosque during Friday prayers that killed over 30 people, including several children.
The Lashkar stormed Taliban bunkers in Doog Darra, Salam Bekay, Ghazigay, Shatkas, Panaghar and Maluk Khwar and torched about 20 houses of people who harboured militants.
People from several other villages joined the Lashkar to expel Taliban from their area.
According to local people, both sides were using heavy weapons in fierce clashes between the Lashkar and the Taliban.
Sources said the village force was attacking Taliban positions in Shatkas, Miana and Doog Bala.
Meanwhile, people of Maluk Khwar and Panaghar villages, who were active supporters
of the militants, also parted ways with them after the mosque blast and announced support for the tribal Lashkar and vowed to evict militants from the area.
Doog Darra area, it may be mentioned, was attacked by planes in the third week of May.
Two men of the Lashkar identified as Shah Khalid and Mohammad Ayaz were injured in Sunday’s clash.
The militants, holed up in their stronghold of Shatkas and Gazigay, were putting up stiff resistance, the sources said.
Agencies add: The incident underscored a swing in the national mood towards a more anti-Taliban stance . . .
Other articles I have read in Dawn.com indicate that the locals' anger toward the U. S. and the national government over drone airstrikes has often been overcome by a greater anger at the disgusting, totalitarian tactics of the Taliban.
Finally, while this is not really "new" news, the belated acknowledgement of the success of the surge strategy in Iraq has finally occurred in Obama Central of the mainstream media --- Newsweek. Fareed Zakaria writes in the current issue in Victory in Iraq:
When the surge was announced in January 2007, I was somewhat cautious about it. I believed that more troops and a proper counterinsurgency strategy would certainly improve the security situation—I had advocated more troops from the start of the occupation—but I believed that the fundamental problem in Iraq was political discord among the country's three main sects and ethnic groups. The surge, in my view, would alleviate those tensions but also postpone the need for a solution. Only a political agreement among these groups could reach one.
I was wrong in some ways. First, the surge turned out to be a more sophisticated strategy—encompassing political outreach to the Sunnis—than I had imagined.
It's hard to believe Newsweek is crediting George W. Bush not just with a military success but with a "sophisticated strategy".
Much that happens in the world is cyclical. The international news has been generally unpleasant since September 11, 2001. In retrospect, the economy has stank or at best mouldered since early 2001. When America said goodbye to the Truman Presidency in 1953 with his miserable 23% approval rating and then suffered through a recession from 1953-54, how many foresaw a decade of peace, prosperity, and booming stock market? And how many people on the morning of November 22, 1963 foresaw the troubles of the next two decades?
So let us hope that despite the numerous policy mistakes of the past year and past decade that have allowed Big Finance to lead us to the current economic disaster, cyclical and other forces will erode its primacy and allow natural forces to do what America likes to think it does best-- make money. And let brutes such as the Taliban and Hezbollah fall of their own weight without American bombs trying to do it from the air.
Copyright (C) Long Lake LLC 2009
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Clinton's "Mortal Threat" Statement and Mullen's Pakistan Visits Mean that Pakistan Could Become Obama's Viet Nam
The New York Times is reporting that Taliban Seize Vital Pakistan Area Closer to the Capital.
While investors are paying close attention to every month-to-month economic jiggle, those with more experience remember that in prior to the 21st century, everyone recognized that data always vary from month to month and that year to year comparisons are stabler. That was until our government deliberately moved away from leading off its economic press releases with year-year changes to now emphasize month-month changes in order to distract the populace from noticing unpleasant trends.In any case, enough economists are still watching year-year and smoothed trends that you will gain limited competitive advantage from making decisions based on the same data, though of course one needs to keep one's knowledge base current. Watch for outlier events, such as news of the insertion of American military "advisers" into Pakistan (not that they are not there already). Afghanistan is not really a country as we in the West think of one, but Pakistan is a real country. Any U.S. move to "defend" Pakistan will come with the argument that it has nukes etc., etc. If President Obama wants to go that route, Pakistan's economy is alive only because of IMF sufferance, so it will have to go along with almost anything the U.S. wants. Here are some snippets from the Times article that may make you wonder if American "advisers" or an actual U. S. armed forces presence are in fact coming:
On Wednesday, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said she was concerned that Pakistan’s government was making too many concessions to the Taliban, emboldening the militants and allowing them to spread by giving in to their demands.
“I think that the Pakistani government is basically abdicating to the Taliban and to the extremists,” Mrs. Clinton told the House Foreign Affairs Committee on Capitol Hill.
She added that the deterioration of security in nuclear-armed Pakistan “poses a mortal threat to the security and safety of our country and the world.”
A senior American official said Mrs. Clinton’s remarks were prompted in part by news of the Taliban takeover in Buner. The officials said that the further erosion of government authority in an area so close to the capital ought to stir concern not only in Pakistan but also among influential Pakistanis abroad.
The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm. Mike Mullen, arrived in Islamabad on Wednesday for the second time in two weeks, reflecting the sense of alarm in the Obama administration. He was scheduled to meet with Pakistan’s top military and intelligence commanders.
The "mortal threat" terminology means that an overt U.S. military presence in Pakistan is being seriously and I suspect favorably contemplated at the highest levels of the Obama administration. Two visits by the chairman of the Joint Chiefs within two weeks is proof positive that such a scenario is realistic rather than an obscure blogger's fantasy.
War is bad, but war at a time of economic depression is more than bad. If war involving the U.S. should come to Pakistan, gold will tend to strengthen, as may the dollar (at first), and very possibly so will Treasuries. If so, EBR believes that the Treasuries should be sold on any price strength but gold should be held and/or purchased.
Copyright (C) Long Lake LLC 2009
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