First question. Ms. Warren is Chairperson of the Congressional Oversight Panel watching the TARP bailout funds. She is a law professor at Harvard. She was a blogger for, first, the Huffington Post and then TPMMuckraker, both definitively left-of-center websites, so one can assume that, as Howard Dean once said, she belongs to the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party.
Second question. What has she been saying about Treasury and her mission to watch the TARP program (and presumably PPIP)?
Ignoring leaks of what an upcoming report may say and recommend, here is a report of an interview she did with (liberal) interviewer Rachel Maddow (from TPMMuckraker):
(TPM CONTINUING): . . . Reports by Warren's panel have grown increasingly critical of Treasury's level of transparency and accountability in regard to the bailout. (Emphasis added)
This is disconcerting. We know that AIG itself (not Treasury) released data on where it funneled its bailout money, and as soon as it released this info (on a Sunday afternoon!), the President and Congressional leaders stirred up a faux outrage to divert the public from that scandal and instead made villains of some AIG employees who received bonuses of a trivial amount relative to the tens of billions of dollars that went to Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs et al. Thus we can be certain that Treasury is working in concert with the Establishment to deceive the public on the extent of the looting. This is of a piece with the post yesterday displaying the entire transcript of William Black on the Bill Moyers show.
Here is a strange situation. A President was elected who was rated the most liberal Senator in the year 2007. He embraces every liberal orthodoxy re climate change, Guantanamo, embryonic stem cell research, deficit spending, etc., except the policies which are core for the allegedly discredited Bush policies: foreign wars and financial cronyism. He ramps up the war in Pak-ghanistan and gives the banksters all they want. The critics of these Big Finance giveaways now come from his left flank: Ms. Warren, Paul Krugman, Yves Smith of Naked Capitalism, or from people of uncertain political leanings (so far as I know) but not known to be conservatives, such as Simon Johnson and Kenneth Rogoff.
His early actions suggest that Barack Obama was sold to America as a new face by the Establishment to perpetuate its interests. He has, however, the thinnest resume of any President in memory. What happens next is therefore even more uncertain than usual.
Most of us who are active in the markets cannot wait for politics to "go away" as it did throughout most of the Reagan-Bush I-Clinton years, when investors and speculators focused primarily on the markets, the economy, the Fed, etc. So long as the White House and Congress, with their obvious immense power to affect sentiment in the short run and to affect the economy, are so massively involved in so many aspects of the economy, along with the most politicized and manipulative Fed in over 30 years and perhaps in history, an old saw may be relevant:
"Making predictions is difficult, especially about the future."
If Elizabeth Warren cannot get good information out of the agency she is overseeing, then you should consider NOT TRADING the markets. "Anything goes." Right now what is going, going, gone is the core of democracy: openness and fair dealing. Trying to guess the price of anything from day to day or week to week is impossible in such an environment. Perhaps that's what Nouriel Roubini is signaling with his post from 2 days ago that he is essentially invested in nothing but cash, along with the report that Ray Dalio of Bridgewater is ignoring stocks from either the long side or the short side for the nonce.
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