Friday, June 5, 2009

For Those Who Doubt The World Is In a Depression . . .

Please see A Tale of Two Depressions, by Barry Eichengreen Kevin H. O’Rourke, which is an update of the authors' 6 April 2009 column comparing today's global crisis to the Great Depression. World industrial production, trade, and stock markets are diving faster now than during 1929-30. Fortunately, the policy response to date is much better. The update shows that trade and stock markets have shown some improvement without reversing the overall conclusion -- today's crisis is at least as bad as the Great Depression.

Here are some graphs.

Graphs for industrial output for many other countries show the same pattern. The current downturn is not the Great Depression, or GD 2, in part because less time has elapsed since the onset.

Let's of course hope that it's winding down as the seers predict.

Copyright (C) Long Lake LLC 2009

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