Yours truly has commented that given the slack in the economy, the biggest risk to a significant return of price increases would likely be a large war in Afghanistan. The President is widely reported to be rethinking his previous emphasis on winning there.
Anyone interested in the idea that there is a government worth fighting for in Afghanistan may want to read What I Saw at the Afghan Special Election.
My conclusion is that the Karzai government is not worth another American life, 8 of which were lost in a battle Saturday.
The article also describes the current warfare as a civil war between Pashtuns. Presumably they are fighting over control of the drug trade. So rather than buy off Mr. Karzai, why not just buy off both sides in the war?
So far as we are given to believe, al-Qaeda is largely headquartered in Pakistan, anyway.
The financial markets are quiet in Asia. So long as the political situation stays stable there as well, the 10-year Treasury still appears to EBR to be pointing toward a 3-3.1% yield and the 30-year to an even more surprising 3.7% yield or less.
Louise Yamada, who called the gold bottom about 8 years ago, disclosed very recently that she now has a target of $1300/ounce for the metal during this ongoing move upwards. She does not however predict both price and time, but generally her time frame for this sort of prediction is not years and years (which would render the prediction useless).
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