Thursday, November 26, 2009

Dubai or to Sell?

Sorry for the bad pun in the title.

In any case, I was looking for real information about the Dubai financial situation. For now, a free link is available at Nouriel Roubini's site,, titled "Dubai Default Worries Infect Markets".

Tomorrow should be interesting. Most of the public won't sell and aren't even paying attention.

Because I believe that stocks are fundamentally overvalued, I am waiting for a heavier shoe than Dubai to drop. I am also concerned that the timing of this news may have been deliberately designed to get out when the public is not following the markets. Not an allegation, but stranger things have happened.

The Federal Government can borrow for 12 months and then pay the lender $100.25 back. That is 25 cents interest on a hundred dollars. That's half the cost of a postage stamp plus envelope. It's hard to believe that smart money is hiding in Treasuries simply because Dubai is overextended. But who knows, maybe some bad might happen and will be averted/delayed, and those hiding in ultra-low yielding Treasuries are truly just hedging their bets.

So far, what's disclosed appears to be a net positive for the shiny yellow metal that does not tarnish. In secular bull markets, that's what happens: the news breaks with the trend (or the trend has foreseen the news flow).

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