Wednesday, March 3, 2010

Commercial Real Estate Values Declining in Real Time


The Markit website gives current prices on CRE. A CMBX price chart shown here for AA.3 is representative of a broad range of pools of different quality. Clicking on the chart will enlarge it.
Consistent with price and trend charts of Big Finance stocks, there was a surge off the bottom of a year ago, but poor price performance recently and from the peak about a year ago.
What values are "in" the stock market is of limited concern to me. The bigger issue is that demand is obviously very weak.
Nothing is ever clear, but given the rapid decline in such measures as ECRI's weekly leading indicator growth rate, the
continued poor velocity of money, it continues to strike EBR that too much of the positive economic statistics that show recovery from the worst of the depression is due only to Fed money/credit creation.
Thus the major trend remains with gold, in my humble opinion. That's the opposite of the 1980s and 1990s, when growth at least appeared to be more organic, with the kicker that declining interest rates goosed stock prices.
Copyright (C) Long Lake LLC 2010

29 comments:

  1. its not just the cmbx aa's that have seen activity. take a look at the creditlime site which has been providing updates on some of the large cmbx trades going on in the market. they've identified in 'real-time' if that is what you call it, some of the mega trades going on in and for all the talk of a comeback i'm definitely suspect. unfortunately it seems there is no way to really figure out WHO is buying/selling at least not yet.

    http://www.creditlime.com/2010/01/22/big-bet-in-commercial-mortgage-land-cmbx-na-bbb-2-this-week/

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  2. ГласностьMarch 4, 2010 at 9:40 AM

    From chart would you agree that volatility is declining? Thus prices are about to rise. N'est-ce pas?

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  3. i dont know if i would reach that conclusion so quickly. "volatility" if you consider the vix was declining all the way until markets really tanked in 2008-09.

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  4. i dont know if i would reach that conclusion so quickly. "volatility" if you consider the vix was declining all the way until markets really tanked in 2008-09.

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