Friday, March 5, 2010

Jobs Report a Non-Event

The BLS is out with the February jobs report.

In about the 26th month since the official start of the depression, significant job loss occurred. "Expectations" were managed to make bad news look like an upside surprise, whatever that is. Various talking heads and paid flacks are saying that this was a fine report, that only the snowstorms messed up seeing the employment growth.

Don't believe it. Read the BLS report. An awful lot of people had to be snowed in for a lengthy period of time for this to have been, objectively, a good month for employment growth. Gallup's surveys show absolutely no improvement in hiring/not hiring.

Likely there will be employment growth in the spring, as Chance the gardener might have said.

But assuming we are in an economic recovery at all, it has been another jobless one, which is say a fake one.

I have no idea what stock traders will do today. My guess is that the jobs report is ultimately a non-event. Given the positive tone out of the futures market on what I view as a non-event, a reversal would be my private base case, but I would not bet a nickel on that thought.

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