Thursday, June 16, 2011

Romney Looking a Likely Winner as Economy Bad and Worsening

First, I have a new post up on The Daily Capitalist; click on that link or cut and paste the link below.

Since I don't discuss politics at that site, I wanted to prognosticate a bit. Yesterday, Lakshman Achuthan, the face of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, told Fox Business News that their US "long leading" indicators have not turned up yet, having turned down in January. Since these are supposed to lead downturns in the economy by a year or so, he said that he foresees the best case-- a lucky case-- that a cyclical slowdown/stagnation in the economy will last until the end of this year. My thought is that it is therefore reasonable to presume that economic activity will be stagnant until at least the end of Q1 next year.

Following from this, the Republicans will see the Presidency ripe for the taking on economic grounds. In that case, they will rally behind their alleged economy guy, Mitt Romney. He will reiterate that so long as he gets a cooperative House and Senate, his first official action will be to repeal Obamacare. (His support of Romneycare will be forgiven in the names of victory and getting the economy moving again.) My further guess is that he will choose a polished social conservative as VP, due to his health care issue vulnerability and for other reasons such as his Mormonism and positions he may have taken as Governor of Massachusetts.

Between the worsened financial status of average Americans as the country apparently heads into a cyclically worsened state of economic stagnation, my guess is that all other things being equal, there will be a President Romney in January 2013.

It goes without saying that there is many a slip twixt the cup and this lip (yet I said it nonetheless).

Copyright (C) Long Lake LLC 2011


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