Friday, July 20, 2012

Recessionary Dynamics Making Income Streams Paramount and Harming Metals Prices- For Now

Gold is vulnerable here as premium to platinum reaches about 12%. 

Yet platinum is much rarer and has gotten to the area where some high production-cost mines are operating at a loss.  I expect silver, platinum and palladium to lead the upturn over gold whenever the markets correctly sniff out a durable global economic upturn that occurs concomitant with additional monetary support from the central banks.

Meanwhile the Billion Prices Project has updated its findings through June 30 for the USA.  Year on year price inflation as it measures it (it cannot measure services, a huge failing) is at 1% and dropping.  Assuming ECRI is correct that the US is in recession, yoy price inflation is going to zero, it would appear.  This in turn would allow the 10-year T-note to drop to 1%.  This in turn would create yet more demand for "safe" dividend income. 

Thus, GARP investing will not "work" as the ED's and even PG's of the world will not be easily sold, short of a fall 2008-style forced-liquidation panic.

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