Thursday, June 28, 2012

Investors Desperately Seeking Income, Utilities Continuing to Act Well

Utilities are acting once more like the new mo-mo stocks.  Look what just set a post-financial crisis high today, closing on its high and thus moving up as the market rallied into the close:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=AVA+Interactive#symbol=ava;range=20040621,20120628;compare=;indicator=sma%2850,150,200%29+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

It's a small northwestern utility with a P/E that's "cheap"- under 17 LOL.  But the payout is 4.4% and people want that good stuff.  Meanwhile P/E's on techs are shrinking and P/E's on a growing number of energy companies are less than 10X TTM.

One factor that actually makes sense in this rush for seemingly secure dividends w/o regard for growth is the tax treatment of foreign earnings.  The foreign earnings of all multi-nationals is not able to be paid out to shareholders as dividends until they come back to the U.S. and get taxed.  Thus a dollar of domestic earnings are worth somewhat more than a dollar of foreign earnings.  That issue notwithstanding, the fact is that utility earnings are not necessarily predictable.  Therefore their dividends are not necessarily secure either.  I have a massively overweight position in utilities in my IRAs.  Avista is one of them.  VVC, Vectren is another.  The charts are in break-out positions and unlike the new premature faves, the homebuilders, they actually have investment merits in the here and now.  The homebuilders will have their day in the sun, but I think they are ahead of themselves.  As was the case with gold and silver in 2009-11, sound domestic electric and natural gas utilities look as though they have more room to run on the upside as investors are increasingly reaching for income.  Con Ed is at $62.  I think $75 is realistic as the months roll by.  Unfortunately Cramer feels the same way, but I've been saying so for awhile.  He does, after all, get some mo-mo stuff right now and then...

4 comments:

  1. You can get better yields on bonds from Italy and Spain. They are not subordinated to bail out loans and such bail out loans are intended to give you some capital gain.

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  2. Where has the good, Dr X, gone?

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  3. bonds from Italy and Spain. They are not subordinated to bail out loans and such bail out loans are intended to give you some capital gain. Stock Tips

    ReplyDelete