Monday, June 4, 2012

Bloomberg Now Reassures Us There Will Be No Recession in the U.S. This Year

The usual counter-trend rally stuff is crossing the wires.  It's "probably" a smart trend to play for a little while, though I don't fully trust it (but may play it with small change that can just sit for years if need be).  From (BBG), this headline is redolent of so many fake-out excuses from prior established ongoing downtrends that suck the sheeple in:  Asia Stocks Climb Amid Global Policy Stimulus Speculation, which begins:

Asian stocks rose amid speculation global policy makers will take steps to stimulate economic growth and after a four-day drop left the regional gauge at the cheapest level this year.

And then after reminding you that others are buying the dip, there's this, a bit down the page:   Growth Slowdown Seen in U.S. as Recession Dodged,which features this "persuasive" lede:

The U.S. economy looks set to deliver a repeat performance in 2012: for the third straight year, it may suffer a swoon yet not slip into a recession.
“I don’t think the slowdown will be any more consequential than the past two years,” said John Ryding, a former Federal Reserve researcher who is chief economist at RDQ Economics LLC in New York. “There are positives out there in the economy. We’ll avoid a recession.” 

The not so hidden persuaders at BBG that favor the theme that all is well and shall always be well will likely modify Ryding's happy foreknowledge of the future if need be by reminding us, should economic data turns more definitively south than it already has that A) the bad news has already been discounted by the markets, so BTD; and B) the Fed will do whatever it takes to save the day, so BTD.

You can see that the recession case has advanced, given that BBG has seen the need to refute the possible occurrence of one. 

What I don't trust about the apparent reflex rally in the commodities is that it's unaccompanied by any significant selling in the T-bond futures, which are ripe for profit-taking.  (If rates stay where they are in the AM, I'm planning on taking profits on the last of my T-bonds, and am also sorely tempted to buy TBT for the first time ever.)  At this point my short-term guess is commodities up for a while, T-bonds up in yield, but continued negative economic data points that raise serious questions about Dr. Ryding's certitude that "We'll avoid a recession".

The "Perils of Pauline" markets continue on, mostly benefiting the brokers. 

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