CRUS, Cirrus Logic, which makes audio chips which trades essentially as an AAPL derivative, has broken out today strongly following a positive report from the Semiconductor Industry Ass'n that business has turned. I take this as a sign that AAPL is "probably" headed to new highs as well. I had gotten lucky and sold most of AAPL around $620+ after A) Cramer called it the stock of the century (I exaggerate only slightly) and then the DOJ e-books lawsuit was filed.
I have been scaling back into the fruit big-time. First intermediate-term target: $690-700 by year-end. Rationale: After FY Q3 earnings are released in about 5 weeks, TTM 12 month earnings could be $45. 15-16X those earnings gets one to about that range. I would also note that Value Line's "value line" places AAPL's "fair value" around $900 as of today.
Am selling my last 14-year Treasury Strip at a 9% return, good in that this one was not bought till late in the rally. My rule of thumb with trading zeroes is that I sell if I net 3 year's worth of interest payments on the trade. Especially so when it's a zero that pays you nothing to own it.
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ReplyDeleteOn this bases, we should see a health rally of PMs in 2013, as market forces will begin to judge the new administration quicker than us.
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