Monday, August 27, 2012

Betting Against QE3 Introduction at Jackson Hole

I have taken a dislike to all this QE 3 speculation and even discussion.  QE was introduced as an emergency measure at a time of crisis and deflation.  It ended at the end of June, 2010 and essentially was reintroduced in August 2010 after it quickly become apparent that "Recovery Summer" was not that at all.  This recurrent bond-buying program was dubbed QE 1.5 and segued seamlessly into what was called QE 2.  So, QE was basically one long program lasting slightly over 1.5 years taken to support economic activity in the wake of a contained depression, aka Great Recession.  Since then, even the stock market plunge last year and refusal of the government to rein in the deficit did not sway the Fed to resume QE. 

With economic stats decent and Europe potentially needing  Fed dollars as swaps, with the U.S. gov't having no difficulty financing the deficit, and with ongoing Op Twist, I think that a much worse economic state is required for QE to be announced at Jackson Hole or any time soon.

Not to mention that the Fed would prefer not to take drastic action until after the election.

Dr. B speaks at JH on Thursday.  My speculation is that gold/silver peak Tuesday or Wednesday.  BBG reported Friday that a weekly poll of commodities traders was at its greatest degree of gold-bullishness in nine months, which was a bad time to buy gold.  Harvey Organ reported his analysis of the COT for Ag/Au as being very bearish for Ag and somewhat bearish for Au.  Thus a bear move in the precious metals next week following higher recovery highs Monday and perhaps Tues-Wed into Wed AM makes sense to me. 

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  2. I agree there is no sense in QE now. I think Ben B will offer some strong assurances of it if necessary in the future.

    I also think he will clearly speak to the role of fiscal action that is needed. The time for monetary action is passed and the time for fiscal action is nigh overdue.

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