Thursday, August 23, 2012

Utilities Sell-Off and Precious Metals Surge Is Badly Timed for Deteriorating Macroeconomic Conditions

Based on the derisking POV expressed in my post on The Daily Capitalist yesterday, I have taken further profits in the accounts I manage in PSLV and PPLT, tho I think platinum heads higher based on newflow.

Overall, earnings estimates continue to climb for CF, more or less on a daily basis.  Short-term volatility notwithstanding, I think it can trade a lot higher given EPS projections to be over $20/share for the next several years.  AGU is cheap and so is DE.

However, I basically think the markets have it wrong right here.  They are busting silver up to 10+% above its 50 day sma, but assuming the global recession moves thru the U.S. (per ECRI), industrial uses of silver will decline and my long-held target price of $21 would then have a good shot at being met.  There remains a good deal of speculation in silver (and gold). 

The reason I write the above, even tho I think the physical metals are going much higher over time, is the unwarranted sell-off in the "safe" high-quality utilities.  One can now receive over 4% in WGL, with a low-ish dividend payout, and about 4% in ED.  Both companies serve the two most vital cities in the U.S. and in this inflationary age, appear to be better buy-and-holds for anything other than the most hair-shirt part of a portfolio (high-quality bonds)-- and that is so even if their tax rate rises.  Even as Japan was (financially speaking) "going Japanese", their 10-year bond did not go below the rate of current CPI inflation, as the U.S. 10-year did recently. 

Last year I concentrated thru August on gold, and starting in the spring added Treasurys.  This year the theme is to lock up an interest stream that has a good chance of being valued much more highly in future years in a ZIRP-forever (ZIRP4EVA per ZH) world.  And if "NIRP" (negative interest rate policy) comes to America, one could see extraordinarily low dividend yields on these equities.

Finally, though they are riskier, both T and VZ are "growthier" than the above utes and offer higher dividend payouts. 

All the above have RSI's near or below 20 tho the fundos have not changed.  So I'm finishing the move into these guys.

Of course, in a new Lehman moment, the prices of all these things will collapse; but I'm betting that their dividend streams won't.

1 comment:

  1. What are your thoughts on Exelon (EXC)? It's paying a higher dividend yield (5.7%) and is a major electric utility.