Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Treasury Long Bond Refuses to Die

Every time I get ready to toss in my optimism for the chart on the Treasury long bond's price, using the ETF 'TLT' as the proxy, it hands in there despite an allegedly booming recovery. The latest chart pattern is shown here. The green line represents the short-term, 10-day moving average. Coming off a low price/high yield 90 days ago at the left of the chart, what one sees is a strong move up in price , with a peak in the 10-day ma around 95. After a dip in price, the 10-day ma now peaked at 96, had a mild dip, and has begun to point upward.
It's early, but this is how bull moves can begin.
Fundamentally, such non-standard indicators as Gallup's daily polling continue to show miserable reports from real people of hiring/non-hiring at their employers. The Baltic Dry Index hit yet another reaction low, and the Chinese stock market has hit a small air pocket the past few days.
I'm no economist; but . . . If Gallup has it right, a 10% unemployment rate is imminent (barring the technicality of a major shrinkage of the labor force).
Copyright (C) Long Lake LLC 2009

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