I'll have more to say after I reread this, but ECRI has responded to the many critics of its 2011 and beyond recession call with a new and interesting position paper. Here's the LINK. I do think it's worth thinking about. One of the facts they adduce is that non-exchange-tradable commodity prices have lagged those listed on exchanges. There are indeed underlying deflationary pressures that are being held at bay by leveraged speculators.
They highlight the 1927 recession and hint that we may be in for a bubble surge in stocks such as was seen into summer 1929-- and as was seen in the late '90s. My preference is to play it safe