Bad News from ECRI

In WLI Growth Drops Again, the Economic Cycle Research Institute states today that:

A measure of future U.S. economic growth fell to a 43-week low in the latest week, indicating that the pace of economic growth is about to slow, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 124.1 for the week ended May 28, down from 125.6 in the prior week. The index's annualized growth rate slid to a 50-week low of 0.4 percent from 5.1 percent a week ago.

As evidence that stagflation will have to wait and little pricing increase, ECRI also reports today in U.S. Inflation Gauge Falls To Five-Month Low that:

A monthly measure of U.S. inflation pressures fell to a five-month low in May as commodity price pressures ebbed, said a research group on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG), designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, fell to 98.9 in May from a revised 101.8 in April. The original number reported in April was 100.8.

"With the USFIG falling to a five-month low, underlying inflation pressures appear to be ebbing," said ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan said in a statement.

The May USFIG annualized growth rate, which smooths out monthly fluctuations, fell to 12.5 percent from a revised 23.4 percent. The April figure was originally reported at 21.2 percent.

One can ignore cheerleading from the White House, as reported in Obama stresses positives in jobs report:

President Obama preferred to accentuate the positive today, citing last month's increase of 431,000 jobs but also acknowledging that the vast majority of them were temporary jobs dealing with the U.S. Census.

"This report is a sign that our economy is getting stronger by the day," Obama said during a visit to a trucking firm in suburban Maryland.

As tar balls wash up on Pensacola Beach, destroying the summer tourist season on the Gulf Coast, the economy is not getting stronger by the day. Statements like that show that this president is out of touch. Sound familiar?

We could be looking at an historic change election. More and more, the financial markets are looking like a rerun of 2008. As we enter summer fire season, we all need to remember Smokey's adage of safety first.

And to remember that Smokey was a bear . . . not a bull.

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