Monday, May 31, 2010

A Different Downbeat Economic Measure Heard From

Consumer Metrics Institute (
is reporting a steady, drip-drip-drip type of deterioration of the consumer economy, which their methodology indicates leads GDP. See the graph showing the last one-month's trend.
The site is an unconventional one and just might provide a competitive investment advantage to those who pay attention to it.
Its news is disheartening; let's see how correct it is. I am aware of nothing that contradicts its views. Here is a quote from its May 30 commentary:

Since we first reported that our 'trailing quarter' had slipped into contraction on January 15th, we have charted how the current 2010 version of the consumer contraction event compares with prior similar events in 2006 and 2008. The current event is significantly different; while it is not as severe as the 2008 contraction, it has already lasted longer without forming a clearly defined bottom. We know that if the GDP mirrors consumer activities (as at least 70% of it should, net of inventory adjustments), both the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2010 should be contracting at a level of between 1% and 2%. If this isn't a classic 'W' shaped 'double dip', it is at least the downward glide of a plane with sputtering engines.

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