Sunday, May 23, 2010

Gold Fundamentals Weakening

The world's largest gold-importing country is India, which has been finding prices too high lately. Thus suggests that the recent new high in gold is best treated as a double top, with early December's price peak the first top. From Jewellers in India look to home as global markets struggle:

VICENZA, Italy (Reuters) - Jewellers in India are pinning hopes for demand in 2010 on the domestic market as international destinations struggle, but extraordinary price volatility is limiting sales, even in auspicious periods.

India, the world's biggest market for the precious metal, had made successful forays into target markets for mid-priced jewellery, but wholesalers exhibiting at Vicenza's international jewellery trade show said uncertainty across financial markets was also mirrored in export activity.

"For the moment, all the markets are slowing down, except for India. Europe is slowing down, the U.S. is not out of the woods yet," said Pradeep Kumar Godha, chairman and managing director of Shantivijay Jewels ltd, in Mumbai. . .

Hemant Shah, director of Hammer Group, a major jewellery wholesaler and core Council member of India's state-backed Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council, said that the uncertainty had turned attention back to Asia. . .

He said clients were reporting a disappointing outcome from Askhay Tritiya, a religious occasion where demand usually jumps because it is considered an auspicious time to buy jewellery and coins.

"Although it is deeply entrenched in religion, this year demand fell by about 60 percent, according to clients I speak with," he said.

Gold is suddenly looking challenged. Not many knowledgeable traders are going to want to fight India; and with China's stock market in a bear and property perhaps already moving down there, demand for jewelry will not soar there either. And if yesterday's post on ECRI's apparent change of view is correct and if ECRI is correct, there is lots of slowdown in growth or outright recession coming.

Sometimes cash has its uses.

Copyright (C) Long Lake LLC 2010


  1. Yes, but....
    ONe has to weigh maybe half a billion dollars of lost physical demand in India against a potential half a trillion dollars of investment demand as the EURO, the worlds second biggest reserve currency now also got a big question mark tattooed on its back. If 0,1% of this money finds its way into gold the India-effect is compensated. I bet the conversion factor will be higher then 0,1% and I will personally contribute to that.

  2. The writer of this idiocy seems to think the spot price of gold depends solely on the appetite of people for gold jewelry. He/she neglected to mention that the Indian central bank recently purchased 200 tons of gold from the IMF, China is purchasing all the gold it can get, and other central banks, businesses, and individuals around the world are buying, not selling, gold.

    Gold purchases, in the form of bullion and coins, are surging as fiat currencies continue to reveal that they are anything but a store of value. Gold/silver dealers in Europe were recently sold out and placed emergency orders for enormous amounts of gold Krands from S Africa.

    Why does Naked Capitalisim bother to post unsigned and misleading screeds like this?

  3. "Why does Naked Capitalisim bother to post unsigned and misleading screeds like this?


  4. Just maybe - Naked Capitalism, but opinions from both sides, allow the reader to form their own opinions ?

    Is gold to high ? What is the cost to mine gold? How expensive to make another ounce of gold, from mining ? What is the demand, jewelery, industry, or safe haven purchases, in bullion ?

  5. Only costs $600 an ounce to mine gold, on average. With gold above $1000, many could become sellers.

    The USA owns over 8000 tonns of gold. What would happen if the USA sold just 20% of their gold ? The gold market would crash.

    Just as, china has little gold reserve. If china became a big buyer, gold would go higher.

    Jewelery sales will slow, if the economy slows. But as fiat currencies take a fall, gold will protect wealth.

    No one make money on gold. I hate gold bugs, gold to the moon. Gold is a store of wealth over the long term. Short term, price movements will whip saw the investor.

    Warren Buffet purchased gold at $300 an ounce. Warren Buffet sold his gold at $900 an ounce. Buffet is smart. Speculators might not feel so smart, if gold does not go higher.

    Only costs $600 to mine gold. Why pay more ?

    At some point, major holders of gold will sell, tthe price will come down. All bubbles always deflate. It is just a question of how big the bubble the gets, or how long the bubble will last?

    If China property crashes, china will be a seller of gold. China currency will go higher over time, china will not buy gold to protect their fiat currency.

  6. But if you sell your gold, what are you receiving in return? Pieces of paper? And therein lies the subject of the debate which continues to rage: In the short, medium, and long run which is a better investment, gold or paper?

  7. >> The USA owns over 8000 tonns of gold.
    >> What would happen if the USA sold just 20% of their gold ? The gold market would crash.

    I've read before the allegation that the USA already lent that gold to people who've already sold it. True? If so, how is the USA going to sell its gold a second time?

    LOL... Maybe they can. Maybe they can sell it again via their renowned brokers "Bialystock & Bloom".

  8. Naked Capitalism is pro-government, pro-bailouts, anti-gold, and socialist/anti-capitalist. Linking to this crap like makes sense.

  9. I bought gold coins from goldline for $2000 an ounce because Glenn Beck cried, and goldline told me the more expensive ones cannot be taken by the government, (a flat out lie) oh wait that was my grandma, alot of gold con-artists out there so watch your grandma

  10. You bought gold for $2000 an ounce because you are an idiot. How difficult is it to check the real spot price of gold and find out that gold was never above $1250?

  11. Gold imports surge by 71 pc in April
    25 May 2010, 1655 hrs IST,PTI

    Save Print EMail Share Comment Text:

    MUMBAI: Gold imports surged by 71 percent during April to 34.2 tonne compared to the year-ago period as prices declined to touch a low of Rs 16,262
    against the record Rs 18,500 level achieved in December 2009.

    The shipments during April 2009 stood at just 20 tonne due to less demand following global economic crisis, according to data given by the Bombay Bullion Association.

  12. NEW DELHI: Gold prices soared to an all-time high of Rs 18,660 per ten grams in the national capital on Tuesday on aggressive buying by stockists and jewellers for the ongoing marriage season amid a firming global trend.

    Prices of the precious metal zoomed by Rs 260 to Rs 18,660 and ornaments by a similar margin to Rs 18,510 per ten grams. Sovereigns also rose by Rs 75 to Rs 14,525 per piece of 8 grams.

    The current surge surpassed the previous record set on December 3 last year.

  13. "Gold has been recycled since ancient times. Once gold comes out of the ground, it never goes back in. It's used over and over again."

    Sell gold jewelry