Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales- May Data Published

From the Commerce Department, the beginning of today's release (click on hyperlink for full release):

May 2009

Business inventories in May 2009 declined 1.0% from the prior month and fell 8.0% from the prior year, to $1,368.1 billion. Sales declined 0.1% from April 2009 and fell 17.8% from May 2008, to $966.1 billion.

It is difficult to find this release, which is brief in its entirety, though it covers almost the entire economy. Note the monthly figure of about $1 billion. This is the most comprehensive sub-report short of GDP and related data we get, I believe. Somehow the MSM doesn't talk about it.

Basically, business remained tough in May. It also remained tough in June and remains tough in July.

The year-on-year sales declines are improving as we move toward lapping the (hoped-for) business trough. A slow rise off the bottom in the pace of business will be good for Treasury bond prices and probably bad for gold. A rapid return to the boom times of the '90s will have the opposite effect.

Copyright (C) Long Lake LLC 2009

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