Thursday, July 30, 2009

Presidental Popularity on the Economy Down as the Stock Market Parties as if a Boom was Booming

It used to be the case that the public's view of how the President was doing on the economy was a referendum on the economy.
With the economic activism of the Obama administration, perhaps to some degree the public is actually commenting on the policies of the government to a greater degree than usual, but I take the above data from a Pew Research poll to largely relate to the traditional view: this is a coincident indicator of the economy wrapped in the guise of a Presidential poll.
No green shoots are seen by the public as we enter the second half year of the 8 this President was elected to serve.
How long the stock market can rise as the public increasingly is upset with the President's handling of the economy is unclear. Certainly the more than tripling of the stock market in FDR's first term correlated quickly with improvement in the Depression.
For me, the above numbers are one more reason not to trust the stock rally; and to the extent that the public is concerned about the deficit despite massive underemployment, another prop to the bond market is strengthened.
Copyright (C) Long Lake LLC 2009

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